Etiqueta: DraftKings

The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than just knowledge of the sport you are entering to compete in in order to be successful. We need to be flexible, precise and open to learning from previous efforts, the latter of which will be the main focus of this week’s post. Game theory methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect last week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – The Millionaire Maker. The same principles of game theory, which can be most simply explained as the development of decision-making processes according to our own skills and knowledge, the assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself will allow us to, to further train our minds to see beyond the outdated list-making techniques employed by much of the field. Approaching improvements with these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful lists and help us develop recurring profitable habit patterns for the weeks ahead. We’ll start by looking at last week’s winning list, extract any relevant lessons for future use, and finish with a look ahead to the upcoming main list.

The winning list

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Lessons learned

Slate condition

The main draw in Week 10 brought a lower average game total and fewer teams with higher team totals in Vegas. This, combined with low prices and a relative lack of projected value at every major position, has set the bar where the score needed to land major GPPs is likely to be lowered.

We saw only three skill position players top 25 DK points in Week 10, and they probably wouldn’t have won anything without at least two on the roster (Bijan Robinson, Calvin Ridley and Marquez Valdes-Scantling). ). Additionally, the rosters were highly unlikely to contain all three given their ownership levels in Millionaire Maker (Robinson: 16.7%, Ridley: 3.8%, Valdes-Scantling: 1.0%).

But the macro aspect of the muted scoring expectation present in the rankings should also fundamentally change how we build rosters, with more attention paid to the overabundance of teams and the diverse one-off production behind it. That’s exactly the plan DraftKings user giantsquid used in his winning list, with the 49ers outnumbered (a quarterback and two pass catchers), which made sense since the 49ers entered the rankings with the highest implied number of teams in Vegas and a diverse the singularities behind it.

Team pair minus server

One of the most interesting aspects of the winning roster in Week 10 was the presence of a pair of teams that did not include their quarterback. On the giantsquid list, this came using Austin Ekeler and Noah Brown. It didn’t work out for either player to achieve the above outcome, but the process of attacking a team environment where goals are expected to be scored without the use of a team defender is proven to be successful, yet the pitch doesn’t use this practice with any meaningful frequency. This «blocked player» mentality is a way to get multiple «right» roster pieces with one «bet» which effectively means «we expect this team to succeed and I can capture mass production with these two players.»

Looking ahead

Week 11 main board standings

The scoring average is up from last week, meaning Vegas is currently expecting more points scored in Week 11. Having more points scored gives players more opportunities to collect significant GPP scores, which should increase the score needed to win larger GPPs. Prices are still very low, meaning it’s highly unlikely we’ll see scores in the 220+ range, but it’s very likely that lists will approach 200 points in GPPs this week. As such, correlations and bets on the game’s environment become more important, while diverse one-offs lose their theoretical appeal. Just like last week, the two teams in Week 11’s main bracket currently have an implied team total in Vegas north of 28 points (Lions and 49ers), meaning those two teams should be included in most of the game lists this week.

Team pair minus server

An interesting aspect of these two teams is that they tend to be more restrained when it comes to passing volume and aggression, which means pairs of teams without a defender jump to the top of the survivability matrix. Doing things like pairing Christian McCaffrey with a 49ers pass catcher or Jahmyr Gibbs with a Lions pass catcher without their respective quarterbacks is likely to be extremely profitable. Other teams to attack in this mansion are the Dolphins (De’Von Achane and pass catcher without Tua Tagovailoa), Rams (Kyren Williams and pass catcher without Matthew Stafford) and Jets (Breece Hall and pass catcher). without Aaron Rodgers).

Players were too short in Week 11

The general lack of projected value in 2024 means we’re forced to look for «value» through a variety of means, primarily by finding players who are fundamentally undervalued based on their roles, projections and range of results. In Week 11, that includes Christian McCaffrey ($8,300 after 2023 at $9,700 salary), Puk Nacu (14 targets in his only fully healthy game in 2024, Week 11 price $7,300), De’Von Achan ($7,200 ; his receiving -only production on plays with Tua Tagovailo this season equals WR10 production plus we get 10-12 carries and can play him as a running back), Cedric Tillman ($5,300; Tillman averaged nearly 11 targets per game without Amari Cooper this season) and Courtland Sutton ($5,900; Sutton has averaged 10 targets per game over the last three games and has hit a salary multiplier of 3 or more in each game).