With just three weeks left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is taking shape. The stakes are higher week by week, as one loss can eliminate many teams from contention.
As we count down to selection day on Dec. 8, here are three games from each remaining week of the regular season that could have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff.
*All rankings are from the College Football Playoff poll
12th week
No. 7 Tennessee at no. 12 Georgia
It’s time for the Bulldogs. After losing 28-10 to now-No. 11 Ole Miss, Kirby Smart’s team owns two losses – a third at home could certainly eliminate Georgia from playoff contention. This is a must win for the Bulldogs.
Tennessee, on the other hand, has a chance to solidify its position in the 12-team playoff, and a win puts the Vols in prime position to play in Atlanta for the SEC title in December. However, unlike Georgia, a loss to Tennessee doesn’t necessarily eliminate the Vols from contention. It will just throw them back into the pot of two-loss SEC teams.
Kansas at no. 6 BYU
It’s a down year for the Jayhawks by preseason expectations. However, Kansas just spoiled Iowa State’s season and would love nothing more than to do the same to undefeated BYU. While the Jayhawks are 3-6, their record doesn’t tell the whole story. Five of the six losses were decided by six points or less. They are a competitive football team, as they proved last Saturday when the Cyclones lost by 45 points.
The Cougars are coming off a close-to-consolation win against Utah last weekend, and unlike Kansas, four of their wins have come by six points or less. BYU ousted the Utes last Saturday and don’t be surprised if the Cougars play in another close contest in Week 12.
Utah at no. 17 Colorado
Right now, Colorado is in control of its own destiny. Win, the Buffaloes are in the Big 12 Championship and competing for a possible automatic bid to the CFP. The loss, however, shakes up the Big 12. We just saw Big 12 leader BYU struggle with Utah. Colorado certainly has more talent, with Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders leading Deion’s squad, but Utah will look to tarnish Colorado’s playoff hopes after opening the season as the favorite to win the Big 12.
CFP: 2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, websites
13th week
Army no. 24 at no. 8 Notre Dame
The Navy couldn’t do it. Now it’s the army’s turn. Do the Black Knights have enough magic? It’s hard to say. But Northern Illinois is. Both teams need a ranked win to stay in CFP contention. Army, undefeated at 9-0 entering the game, needs this win to prove they can compete outside of the American Conference, which the Black Knights have trudged through to this point.
Army and Boise State no. The Broncos impressed, only losing to No. 1 Oregon by a field goal, and it’s clear the CFP board values Boise more, given the 11-point difference between the two teams. But if Army beats the Irish, it immediately has a much better win than any of Boise State’s resume wins.
Notre Dame cannot afford to lose. They probably own the worst defeat of the season. Another loss to a powerless conference program isn’t a good look for a team eyeing a playoff spot, especially if the Irish don’t have a chance to compete for a conference championship.
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State
Is Indiana legal? He had his biggest win of the season last Saturday against Michigan, but the game against the Buckeyes is a much different test. A win here not only catapults Indiana into the driver’s seat for a CFP berth, but proves that this isn’t a one-and-done year for the Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti has a chance to rebrand what people think of Indiana football.
Now before we get ahead of ourselves, on paper Ohio State should win this game. But with the way this college football season has unfolded, no win is a guarantee. The Buckeyes struggled in Week 9 against Nebraska — the same Nebraska team that lost by 49 to the Hoosiers. It’s a dangerous game to rely on head-to-head comparisons, but there could be some value in that.
Ohio State needs this win to compete for the Big Ten Championship, and so does Indiana. You’ll have to watch this Week 13 matchup on TV.
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota
Penn State is quietly creeping into the College Football Playoff race. The Nittany Lions don’t have a realistic path to a Big Ten championship, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Oregon will win, and the winner of Indiana and Ohio State will meet the Ducks in Indianapolis. All Penn State has to do is beat Purdue in Week 12, Minnesota and Maryland in Week 14. If that happens, James Franklin’s team should get the first seven seed in the playoffs. The Nittany Lions’ only loss was by a touchdown against Ohio State. That’s a strong enough resume for the playoffs.
However, Minnesota proved competitive, beating Southern Cal by more than Penn State. It doesn’t mean much, but we’ve seen Penn State struggle at times this season. One loss against an unranked Gopher team could send the blue and white plummeting.
14th week
3 Texas at 15 Texas A&M
It’s the biggest game remaining for both programs and has a strong chance to decide who goes to the SEC Championship — just like Georgia vs. Tennessee in Week 12. The winner of this game will likely have one conference loss, and this season, that’s all it will take to get to the conference title game in Atlanta. If Tennessee beats Georgia, the Vols will face the winner of that matchup. However, if Tennessee loses, there will be a tie between a handful of SEC teams. But whichever team wins this Week 14 matchup, it will be in Atlanta with one conference loss.
No. 8 Notre Dame at Southern Cal
Let’s say Notre Dame beats Southern Cal. One would think that if the Irish have one loss, even to Northern Illinois, they are in the playoffs. But two losses? No. The Irish will fall. The Trojans have been poor this season, but all five of their losses have been by one score or less, and three of those losses have been by three points or less.
Now, Notre Dame is on a roll since losing at Northern Illinois. It would be surprising, but it looks like the historic stars could align for the Trojans and spoil the Irish’s playoff hopes.
No. 7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is out of playoff contention. Tennessee isn’t, and the Commodores would love nothing more than to spoil their in-state rivals’ postseason aspirations. Vanderbilt proved it can with a win over Alabama and a close loss to Texas. If the Vols enter this game with one loss, meaning they beat Georgia, Vanderbilt could eliminate them from the chance to go to Atlanta for the SEC Championship. If Tennessee enters this game with two losses, Vanderbilt could eliminate the Vols from playoff contention. It might not work out that way, but if it does, I’d watch the goalpost in Nashville.
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