The college football futures market has been rocked by the second release of the CFP rankings

The second release of the College Football Playoff rankings saw a major shift, with some teams moving up and others falling. Indiana made a notable jump to No. 5, continuing their impressive season, while BYU moved up to No. 6, further bolstering their playoff hopes.

Miami, on the other hand, dropped five spots to No. 9 after a shocking loss to unranked Georgia Tech, and Georgia dropped nine spots to No. 12 after a disappointing loss at home to Ole Miss. With these moves in mind, the futures market has become a little murkier. Here’s a look at some of the changes and one bet to keep in mind.

All odds are accurate to timestamp. Go to ESPN BET for the latest odds.

The biggest lifters

5. Indiana Hoosiers (+2500) and 6. BYU Cougars (+7500)

Indiana’s rise to the top five is a significant accomplishment, especially since it marks the first time in program history that the Hoosiers have reached ten wins in a season. They kept their undefeated record alive with a close win over Michigan, showing their ability to compete in high pressure situations. That impressive performance, along with the chaos surrounding other top teams, including Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech, justified Indiana’s jump from No. 8 to No. 5. The committee acknowledged the strong season and the Hoosiers’ potential for continued success, especially as they continue to compete for place in the playoffs.

Indiana is listed at -500 to make the playoffs, +340 to make the playoffs and +750 to win the Big Ten. These odds align with their current No. 5 ranking, reflecting confidence in their ability to make the playoffs if they continue their strong season. However, the +750 odds to win the Big Ten highlight some uncertainty about whether they can secure the conference title, possibly due to potential matchups with powerhouses like Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten game.

Indiana was +900 to make the playoffs entering Week 6 and +1100 to win the conference entering Week 11, buying at the current +340 they can miss price makes for an interesting counter. If you think Indiana could struggle or fall in a critical game, this could be a smart way to lock in some gains or mitigate potential losses depending on how their season plays out.

BYU also made a notable jump in the rankings after a hard-fought win against rival Utah. Going a perfect 9-0 overall and 6-0 in Big 12 play, BYU has put in consistent performances throughout the season. The commission rewarded their efforts not only to maintain their undefeated status, but also to capitalize on the misfortune of the teams ranked above them. As a result, BYU is now set as the third seed in the projected playoff bracket, strengthening their status as a contender in this year’s playoff race.

BYU is listed at +100 to make and -130 to miss the playoffs, with +175 odds to win the Big 12 as the second favorite. While BYU’s ranking warrants optimism about their playoff chances, the odds reflect some caution due to potential future challenges. The Cougars have seen little change in their odds, going from +120 to the playoffs entering Week 11, suggesting that while they are in a strong position, the market remains wary of potential obstacles in their path to securing a spot.

Biggest falls

9. Miami Hurricanes (+4000) and 12. Georgia Bulldogs (+900)

Miami’s odd drop from no. 4 on no. 9 is a direct result of their shocking 31-28 loss to unranked Georgia Tech. This loss not only ended Miami’s undefeated record, but also exposed significant vulnerabilities in their defense, which has been lacking in several games this season. The committee’s decision to drop Miami five spots reflects the severity of losing to an unranked opponent so late in the season, especially when other top contenders continue to win. The strength of Miami’s schedule has been questionable all season with zero wins against ranked opponents, and this loss adds to concerns about their ability to compete at the highest level. While still in the playoffs, Miami’s path has become much more challenging and they will need to win convincingly and likely need help from other teams to climb back into the top four.

Miami is listed at -150 to make it, +120 to miss the playoffs, and +100 as the favorite to win the ACC, reflecting confidence in Miami’s ability to win the ACC and potentially secure a playoff spot. While Miami’s road has become significantly more difficult, they will need to win convincingly and will likely need help from other teams to get back into the top four.

Georgia’s dramatic drop from No. 3 to No. 12 marks one of the most significant falls for a top-ranked team in recent CFP history. The Bulldogs’ unexpected 35-21 loss to Ole Miss at home was a major factor in that slump, but the committee’s harsh assessment goes beyond just one loss. That loss, along with questions about Georgia’s entire division, caused them to plummet in the rankings. The manner of the loss—outplayed on both sides of the ball at home—raised serious doubts about Georgia’s ability to compete with the nation’s elite teams. While Georgia’s playoff hopes aren’t completely dashed, this ranking shows they have a mountain to climb to get back into playoff contention.

The playoff odds for Georgia at -450 to make it and +300 to get eliminated don’t seem quite right with their current 12th ranking. After falling nine spots following the loss, the odds are still heavily in favor of Georgia making the playoffs, likely due to facing the toughest schedule in the FBS. Oddsmakers believe they have a strong chance of bouncing back and securing a place despite their current position outside the top 10.

Bet to Consider: SMU Mustangs to Miss Playoffs (-180)

SMU to miss the playoffs at -180 could be a good bet for several reasons. SMU is currently in a strong position in the ACC, but their playoff chances are far from guaranteed, sitting at 38%. That’s assuming they win out and claim the ACC Championship. If the Mustangs lose one of their remaining regular season games (against the Virginia Cavaliers or Cal Bears) or the ACC Championship Game (likely against Miami), their road to the playoffs becomes very difficult.

SMU’s only loss this season came against BYU, which doesn’t hurt them too much, but their overall strength of schedule (81st) isn’t as strong as the other Power 5 teams. If they finish the season with two losses (either in the regular season or in the ACC Championship), would have a hard time securing an at-large bid in a crowded field with one loss and undefeated teams from stronger conferences.

The committee favors teams from stronger conferences with better resumes, and SMU would need a lot of chaos among the other top teams to sneak into the playoffs as a two-loss team. While I was initially thinking of betting on Miami to miss the playoffs at +120 for the odds, given that SMU has a tough road and is in a win-or-lose scenario every week, I’m betting on the Mustangs to miss the playoffs at -180 offered more value.