Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Caleb Williams and the Bears are bad

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have very limited time to monitor and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to assess exactly how worried you should be – if at all.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Hill is WR41 in fantasy points per game this season and the return of Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t helped as expected. The Dolphins surprisingly have the second lowest WR target percentage this season (49.1%). Running back De’Von Achane led Miami to its first target % read on Monday night when Hill was tied on third down with tight end Jonnu Smith.

Hill has four times as many games with less than 25 receiving yards than he had in the last two seasons combined. Tagovailoa ranks 36 in deep throw attempts (7.7%). He recently passed Patrick Mahomes for the fewest average projected air yards (5.4) of any quarterback this season. Hill has taken a side seat in an offense that no longer throws deep (or scores as many points), and a wrist injury could explain that.

Hill’s wrist has reportedly been bothering him since training camp (and worsened during his arrest), and an initial MRI showed a torn ligament. That could contribute to his declining road win rate this season. Hill’s fantasy managers must be panicking given the new strikeout and injury news.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb has been able to maintain fantasy production with Cooper Rush in the past, but his first game this season was a disaster. The Rush gave up as many tackles (2.0) as they gained yards per attempt. It was the fewest passing yards in a game with at least 20 attempts since 2015. The Rush finished with an above-expected completion percentage (-13.5) in the eighth percentile despite an average depth of target of just 6.4 yards (18th percentile). Lamb’s 10 targets resulted in 21 scoreless yards, including a touchdown loss in the sun.

Trey Lance was no better, taking two sacks and being sacked on six pass attempts as Dallas finished with 32 net passes. Dak Prescott is officially out for the season. A move to Lance would be a disaster for Lamb’s fantasy value, but Rush remains the Week 11 starter.

Lamb’s «expert consensus rank» this week is WR15, as it’s hard to go too much lower on a player who leads the NFL in target share from Week 4. But Lamb’s new situation (and the tap on the shoulder) has forced fantasy managers to tackle the corner (he’s now a WR2).

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Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams probably isn’t in many starting fantasy lineups these days, but managers are still hoping for life from Chicago’s pass catchers. And from a broader perspective, there is serious concern about the future of this year’s No. 1 draft pick. Williams is coming off one of his worst QB seasons in recent memory, ranking last among 106 quarterbacks in catchable throw rate since 2021. It also ranks last in this range in pressure-to-bag ratio.

Chicago’s offensive line has been average in pass blocking, while Williams has the highest average pressure time in the league. When not under pressure, Williams ranks 31st in passer rate. He has the worst completion percentage of 15+ yards among 468 QBs over the past 15 years. Williams’ first nine career starts haven’t been as bad as Bryce Young or David Carr’s, but he’s right in their territory.

Williams faced the third easiest QB adjusted schedule ever! And it gets the eighth hardest progression. When not facing Jacksonville or Carolina’s defenses, which rank third last in EPA/passing this season, Williams has averaged 179.3 passing yards (5.3 YPA!) in seven games with just three passes for touch. The Bears fired general manager Shane Waldron and even the discussion of putting Williams is shocking for someone with his college resume. Some veteran teammates are reportedly calling Tyson Bagent.

The Bears offense ranks last in yards per drive, EPA/return, sacks allowed and touchdowns since their Week 7 run. Chicago hasn’t produced a top-20 performance at wide receiver since Week 6, and DJ Moore has just one all season. D’Andre Swift also suffers from Williams’ issues, as his shares in wins (108.6 scrimmage yards, 0.75 TD) and losses (72.0 YFS, 0.2 TD) are dramatic.

Williams clearly has plenty of time to improve, and a complete coaching overhaul during the season could help. But his start in the NFL has been very concerning and there is no way New England or Washington trade a QB now.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas Jr. has seen his targets cut in half while averaging just 17.0 receiving yards through two games since suffering a pectoral injury. He also suffered from Mac Jones taking over at QB last week, which will happen again this Sunday and could end the season with Trevor Lawrence out with a serious shoulder injury. Jones managed a modest 4.5 YPA against Minnesota’s defense last week, allowing the seventh-most passing yards. Jones threw 59% of his passes to tight ends, which isn’t ideal for a rookie wide receiver. While Lawrence hasn’t been the prince we were promised, he still leads the league in end zone targets (after a missed game) and Jones is noticeably downgraded.

Thomas ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards and sixth in fantasy points per target as a rookie, but his leap to fantasy stardom may have to wait until next season.

JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

Dobbins’ weighted chance share dropped to 56.5% last week with the return of Gus Edwards. He and Edwards both had 10 carries before Dobbins scored the final five. On the plus side, Dobbins posted his highest route participation rate (74%) and target percentage (17%) of the season while logging 18 touchdowns.

Dobbins also had no luck last week when he was beaten at the one-yard line and watched Justin Herbert and Hassan Haskins punt on short field goals. But Edwards (or Haskins?) could be a problem on the goal line, and Dobbins has only gotten 3.5 YPC since Week 3 coming back from Achilles surgery. Dobbins remains the RB2, but Edwards’ return is a hit to his fantasy value.